Predicting Returns in the Stock and Bond Markets

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Finance Papers
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Finance
Finance and Financial Management
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Keim, Donald B
Stambaugh, Robert F
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Several predetermined variables that reflect levels of bond and stock prices appear to predict returns on common stocks of firms of various sizes, long-term bonds of various default risks, and default-free bonds of various maturities. The returns on small-firm stocks and low-grade bonds are more highly correlated in January than in the rest of the year with previous levels of asset prices, especially prices of small-firm stocks. Seasonality is found in several conditional risk measures, but such seasonality is unlikely to explain, and in some cases is opposite to, the seasonal found in mean returns.

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1986
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Journal of Financial Economics
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At the time of publication, author Robert F. Stambaugh was affiliated with the University of Chicago. Currently, he is a faculty member at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.
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