Predictive Regressions: A Present-Value Approach

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Finance Papers
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Finance
Finance and Financial Management
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van Binsbergen, Jules
Koijen, Ralph
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We propose a latent variables approach within a present-value model to estimate the expected returns and expected dividend growth rates of the aggregate stock market. This approach aggregates information contained in the history of price-dividend ratios and dividend growth rates to predict future returns and dividend growth rates. We find that returns and dividend growth rates are predictable with  values ranging from 8.2% to 8.9% for returns and 13.9% to 31.6% for dividend growth rates. Both expected returns and expected dividend growth rates have a persistent component, but expected returns are more persistent than expected dividend growth rates.

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2010-01-01
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The Journal of Finance
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At the time of publication, author Jules van Binsbergen was affiliated with Stanford University. Currently, he is a faculty member at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.
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