2013-01-01, Fu, Ellen

The unrelenting high unemployment/underemployment rates following the 2008 recession have become a possibly structural problem for the U.S. economy. Today’s jobseekers face many difficulties, some of which may be better addressed by understanding the mental models held by jobseekers towards being unemployed and underemployed. Rule developing experimentation identified three types of mental models towards unemployment: “I’m out of date”, “I still got it”, and “I need to adapt”. Each mental model carries with it suggestions about what customized courses of action policymakers can recommend for the individual. This paper discusses the findings and implications for policymakers and unemployment/underemployed service providers.

1996-07-01, Armstrong, J. Scott, Armstrong, J. Scott

Comment on the purpose of publishing management research.

1990-01-16, Armstrong, J. Scott, Armstrong, J. Scott

Author's Note: The following was sent to the Wharton faculty in November, 1989, challenging a set of proposals by the Wharton Teaching Committee.1 The committee's proposal was presented as an "all or nothing" choice. Despite a substantial amount of support for the position stated below, the Wharton Committee recommendations were passed as originally proposed; this includes punitive measures for faculty who get low ratings (referred to below as the committee's Proposal #1). The proposals said that for tenure or promotion, a faculty member must get better than an "average" rating (3.0 on a five point scale). The vote was close. It seems likely that Proposal #1 would have been defeated had a secret ballot been conducted on this item alone. Action was not taken on any of the nine proposals in my paper, and neither of the proposals on process were accepted. Since that time, faculty from other schools have read the memo and suggested that it be reprinted in Almanac in order to gain further faculty comment. They are concerned that similar events in their schools may affect the quality of the educational environment.

2010-08-01, Armstrong, J. Scott, Armstrong, J. Scott

This paper summarizes the key conditions under which the index method is valuable for forecasting and describes the procedures one should use when developing index models. The paper also addresses the specific concern of selecting inferior candidates when using the bio-index as a nomination helper. Political decision-makers should not use the bioindex as a stand-alone method but should combine forecasts from a variety of different methods that draw upon different information.

2013-09-01, Krimmel, Jacob, Moore, Kevin B, Sabelhaus, John, Smith, Paul

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is responsible for two of the most widely used datasets containing information about U.S. household balance sheets: the quarterly macro-level Financial Accounts of the United States (FA, formerly known as the Flow of Funds Accounts) and the triennial microlevel Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF). The FA is very timely, but the data can be used only to describe the household sector as a whole. The SCF provides the micro-level detail needed to capture heterogeneity in household finances, but the data are available only with a long lag. The authors’ key contribution in this article is their use of the FA dataset and other macro data sources to “age” the micro- level SCF data forward through time to generate a representative sample for current-quarter policy analysis. They use this aging approach to compare and contrast pre- and post-recession trends in key indicators, such as net worth, debt-to-income ratios, debt service-to-income ratios, and housing loan-to-value ratios across families grouped by characteristics including income, age, and geography.

2021-10-15, Vlessing, Zachary M, Vlessing, Zachary M, Eileen Doherty-Sil

In June 2021, a group of researchers from ESG analytics firm Impact Cubed published research that analyzed country level progress in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These goals form the international standard on 21st century development, advancing economic, social, environmental, and democratic values. Utilizing a pathway analysis to track a country's trajectory in achieving the goals, this groundbreaking study found that Lithuania has the strongest pathway towards Sustainable Development in the world. To understand both what has driven this progress and what can be done to further capitalize on their success, field research was conducted in Lithuania with first-hand accounts from Lithuanian leaders. Representatives from government ministries, impact-oriented businesses, non-governmental organizations, and national publications all contributed to these findings. DRIVERS OF PROGRESS 8 key drivers are identified as contributing to Lithuania’s position as a leader in SDG progress. These insights can be broken down into 3 main categories: Geographical Position, Political Situation, and Progressive Business Ecosystem Geographical Position Resource Rich - Lithuanian large forests and fresh water sources provide climate benefits and minimize the risk of over exploitation Nordic Influence - Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Denmark are bringing influence and investment that are shaping Lithuanian practices in their image Energy Independence from Russia - New connection to European power grids have made Lithuanian energy more sustainable and affordable Political Situation European Union Support-Green New Deal and Sustainability Reporting from the EU is rapidly affecting how politicians and businesses view the climate crisis Domestic Political Support - Policies targeting various SDGs such as plastic waste, alcoholism, and forest coverage have proved to be effective in developing a more progressive society Progressive Business Ecosystem Emergence of Corporate Sustainability-Increased consumer demand for impact-oriented products is shifting companies towards maximizing social impact as well as profit Growing Entrepreneurial Hub - Favorable business regulation is causing foreign nationals to return home and attracting top talent to develop new ideas Rise of Impact Financing-Success of Green Bonds is raising significant capital for green energy and infrastructure RECOMMENDATIONS To capitalize on the promising progress achieved to date, 3 primary recommendations emerge: Move Sustainable Development to the Prime Minister’s Office - Current ownership of the SDGs within the Ministry of Environment is unable to tackle the full scope of the SDGs, which run across ministries Revitalize the SDG Expert Network - Engagement from the Expert Network is crucial to build partnerships and encourage lawmakers to pursue policies that achieve the SDGs Develop Institute of Sustainable Finance - Creation of an Institute would make Lithuania a regional leader in facilitating investment into projects related to sustainability and social development

2013-01-01, Quigley, Jonathan, Torre, Nathanaëlle G. D L, Amit, Raphael, Villalonga, Belen, Contigiani, Andrea

2013-01-01, Cocci, Matthew

This paper examines, the TIPS Beta, a simple regression-based measure of the link between yields on Nominal U.S. Treasury bonds and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) using data beginning in January 2003. In the time period until late-2008 and early-2009, the Beta measure exhibited minor variations about a relatively stable level before subsequently displaying increased variability about a new, lower level. The change marks a deteriorating or less-persistent link between yields in the two markets, which this paper examines in more detail. In particular, a basic model of yields and interest rates movements is given, which is then used to simulate interest rates. By adding uncorrelated, idiosyncratic errors to the two markets, increased uncertainty in inflation expectations, and a shock to the TIPS liquidity premium, the behavior of the Beta statistic over the observed time period can be replicated.

1981-12-01, Armstrong, J. Scott, Armstrong, J. Scott

If you want good forecasts for your industry, you should hire the best experts. Right? Well, maybe not.

1989, Armstrong, J. Scott, Armstrong, J. Scott

Editorial on the Reflections on Forecasting in the 1980's, published in the International Journal of Forecasting.