Search results
Publication A Note on the Use of Markov Chains in Forecasting Store Choice(1969-12-01) Armstrong, J. Scott; Farley, John UEhrenberg's sweeping criticism of Markov brand switching models [3] highlights many shortcomings of these models for aggregate analysis of consumer behavior. While it has been pointed out that some of his criticisms are not entirely correct [13], one of Ehrenberg's themes is unquestionably valid. The models tend to break down empirically due to violations of important Markovian stability assumptions [14]. A situation in which the assumptions of the model appear less restrictive is short-run forecasting of store choice behavior of individual families.Publication Significance Tests Harm Progress in Forecasting(2007-04-01) Armstrong, J. ScottBased on a summary of prior literature, I conclude that tests of statistical significance harm scientific progress. Efforts to find exceptions to this conclusion have, to date, turned up none. Even when done correctly, significance tests are dangerous. I show that summaries of scientific research do not require tests of statistical significance. I illustrate the dangers of significance tests by examining an application to the M3-Competition. Although the authors of that reanalysis conducted a proper series of statistical tests, they suggest that the original M3 was not justified in concluding that combined forecasts reduce errors and that the selection of the best method is dependent upon the selection of a proper error measure. I show that the original conclusions were justified and that they are correct. Authors should try to avoid tests of statistical significance, journals should discourage them, and readers should ignore them. Instead, to analyze and communicate findings from empirical studies, one should use effect sizes, confidence intervals,replications/extensions, and meta-analyses.Publication Brand Trial After a Credibility Change(1970-10-01) Armstrong, J. Scott; Montgomery, David BIn most frequently purchased, branded product markets, the consumer has little to choose from in terms of significantly differentiated products. The staggering array of manufacturers' claims and counter claims of brand superiority seems to leave consumers somewhat bewildered or cynical. What would happen if the credibility of the appeals made on behalf of one brand should suddenly be enhanced by a seemingly legitimate authority? More specifically, what would characterize consumers who would respond to such a change in credibility?Publication The Use of the Decomposition Principle in Making Judgments(1975-10-01) Armstrong, J. Scott; Denniston, William B; Gordon, Matt MOne hundred and fifty-one subjects were randomly divided into two groups of roughly equal size. One group was asked to respond to a decomposed version of a problem and the other group was presented with the direct form of the problem. The results provided support for the hypotheses that people can make better judgments when they use the principle of decomposition; and that decomposition is especially valuable for those problems where the subject knows little. The results suggest that accuracy may be improved if the subject provides the data and the computer analyzes it, than if both steps were done implicitly by the subjects.Publication Analyzing Quantitative Models(1974-04-01) Armstrong, J. Scott; Shapiro, Alan CThis article presents a framework for the evaluation of quantitative models. The framework is both simple and realistic and could be used profitably by most organizations. It incorporates not only internal accounting data but also the human elements of bias or antipathy toward the models on the part of company employees using them, which might tend to distort an internal assessment and even the capability of the model itself.Publication Class of Mail Does Affect Response Rates to Mailed Questionnaires: Evidence from Meta-analysis(1990) Armstrong, J. ScottIn contrast to the conclusions from traditional reviews, meta-analysis shows that certain types of postage have an important effect on return rates to mail surveys. In particular, US business reply postage should not be used in survey research.Publication Predicting the Outcome of Marketing Negotiations: Role-Playing versus Unaided Opinions(1989) Armstrong, J. Scott; Hutcherson, Philip DRole-playing and unaided opinions were used to forecast the outcome of three negotiations. Consistent with prior research, role-playing yielded more accurate predictions. In two studies on marketing negotiations, the predictions based on role-playing were correct for 53% of the predictions while unaided opinions were correct for only 7% (p < 0.001).Publication Portfolio Planning Methods: Faulty Approach or Faulty Research? A Rejoinder to "Making Better Decisions" by Wensley(1994) Armstrong, J. Scott; Brodie, Roderick JWensley (1994) makes three key points. First, it is worthwhile to conduct empirical studies of the value of management techniques. Second, managers probably misuse portfolio methods. Third, the Armstrong and Brodie study is flawed. We agree with all three points.Publication Review of Alfie Kohn, No Contest: The Case Against Competition(1988-10-01) Armstrong, J. ScottKohn's No Contest reviews empirical research on competition. In fact, much work has been done to determine whether competition is better than cooperation and some work has compared competition with doing the best for oneself. The research comes from many fields, but primarily from education, sports, the performing arts,and psychology. The results have been consistent, clear-cut, and surprising: competition typically results in less creativity, poorer performance, and reduced satisfaction.Publication Review of Scott Plous, The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making(1994-07-01) Armstrong, J. ScottWhere can one find basic marketing principles? Up to now, my favorite source has been Influence(Cialdini 1984, 1993). In The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making, Plous (rhymes with house) adds to Cialdini by summarizing important principles in an effective manner. The book contains a wonderful selection of the classic studies on psychology. These are organized into six sections: (1) perception, memory, and context; (2) how questions affect answers; (3) models of decision making; (43 heuristics and biases; (5) the social side of judgment and decision making; and (6) common traps.