Asymptotic Calibration

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Penn collection
Statistics Papers
Degree type
Discipline
Subject
Brier score
calibration
competitive ratio
regret
universal prediction of sequences
worst case
Statistics and Probability
Funder
Grant number
License
Copyright date
Distributor
Related resources
Author
Foster, Dean P
Vohra, Rakesh
Contributor
Abstract

Can we forecast the probability of an arbitrary sequence of events happening so that the stated probability of an event happening is close to its empirical probability? We can view this prediction problem as a game played against Nature, where at the beginning of the game Nature picks a data sequence and the forecaster picks a forecasting algorithm. If the forecaster is not allowed to randomise, then Nature wins; there will always be data for which the forecaster does poorly. This paper shows that, if the forecaster can randomise, the forecaster wins in the sense that the forecasted probabilities and the empirical probabilities can be made arbitrarily close to each other.

Advisor
Date Range for Data Collection (Start Date)
Date Range for Data Collection (End Date)
Digital Object Identifier
Series name and number
Publication date
1998-06-01
Journal title
Biometrika
Volume number
Issue number
Publisher
Publisher DOI
Journal Issue
Comments
Recommended citation
Collection