Multitask Learning With Expert Advice

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Statistics Papers
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Computer Sciences
Statistics and Probability
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Abernethy, Jacob D
Bartlett, Peter
Rakhlin, Alexander
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We consider the problem of prediction with expert advice in the setting where a forecaster is presented with several online prediction tasks. Instead of competing against the best expert separately on each task, we assume the tasks are related, and thus we expect that a few experts will perform well on the entire set of tasks. That is, our forecaster would like, on each task, to compete against the best expert chosen from a small set of experts. While we describe the "ideal" algorithm and its performance bound, we show that the computation required for this algorithm is as hard as computation of a matrix permanent. We present an efficient algorithm based on mixing priors, and prove a bound that is nearly as good for the sequential task presentation case. We also consider a harder case where the task may change arbitrarily from round to round, and we develop an efficient approximate randomized algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques.

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2007-01-28
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At the time of publication, author Alexander Rakhlin was affiliated with the University of California, Berkeley. Currently, he is a faculty member at the Statistics Department at the University of Pennsylvania.
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