Sales Forecasts for Existing Consumer Products and Services: Do Purchase Intentions Contribute to Accuracy?

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dc.contributor.authorArmstrong, J. Scott
dc.contributor.authorKumar, V
dc.contributor.authorMorwitz, Vicki Gail
dc.date2023-05-17T06:17:39.000
dc.date.accessioned2023-05-22T23:41:42Z
dc.date.available2023-05-22T23:41:42Z
dc.date.issued2000-08-01
dc.date.submitted2011-05-23T11:25:13-07:00
dc.description.abstractPurchase intentions are routinely used to forecast sales of existing products and services. While past studies have shown that intentions are predictive of sales, they have only examined the absolute accuracy of intentions, not their accuracy relative to other forecasting methods. For example, no research has been able to demonstrate that intentions-based forecasts can improve upon a simple extrapolation of past sales trends. We examined the relative accuracy of four methods that forecast sales from intentions. We tested these methods using four data sets involving different products and time horizons; one of French automobile sales, two of U.S. automobile sales, and one of U.S. wireless services. For all four products and time horizons, each of the four intentions-based forecasting methods was more accurate than an extrapolation of past sales. Combinations of these forecasting methods using equal weights lead to even greater accuracy, with error rates about one-third lower than extrapolations of past sales. Thus, it appears that purchase intentions can provide better forecasts than a simple extrapolation of past sales trends. While the evidence from the current study contradicts the findings of an earlier study, the consistency of the results in our study suggest that intentions are a valuable input to sales forecasts.
dc.description.commentsSuggested Citation: Armstrong, J.S., Morwitz, V.G. and Kumar, V. (2000). Sales Forecasts for Existing Consumer Products and Services: Do Purchase Intentions Contribute to Accuracy? International Journal of Forecasting. Vol. 16(3). p. 383-397. The published version of this article is available at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207000000583
dc.identifier.urihttps://repository.upenn.edu/handle/20.500.14332/39299
dc.legacy.articleid1185
dc.legacy.fieldstrue
dc.legacy.fulltexturlhttps://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1185&context=marketing_papers&unstamped=1
dc.source.issue143
dc.source.journalMarketing Papers
dc.source.peerreviewedtrue
dc.source.statuspublished
dc.subject.otherForecasting
dc.subject.otherBusiness
dc.subject.otherMarketing
dc.titleSales Forecasts for Existing Consumer Products and Services: Do Purchase Intentions Contribute to Accuracy?
dc.typeArticle
digcom.contributor.authorisAuthorOfPublication|email:armstrong@wharton.upenn.edu|institution:University of Pennsylvania|Armstrong, J. Scott
digcom.contributor.authorMorwitz, Vicki Gail
digcom.contributor.authorisAuthorOfPublication|email:vkumar@uh.edu|institution:University of Houston - Main|Kumar, V
digcom.identifiermarketing_papers/143
digcom.identifier.contextkey2025238
digcom.identifier.submissionpathmarketing_papers/143
digcom.typearticle
dspace.entity.typePublication
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relation.isAuthorOfPublicationca7b04cb-26d2-47cd-8288-b5cdd527511b
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery23e4ecd3-2c1e-4a2e-b1d7-f8c2c3427fb3
upenn.schoolDepartmentCenterMarketing Papers
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