Selective Speculation in the AI Era
Penn collection
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Discipline
Finance and Financial Management
Subject
Financial Bubbles
Stock Analysis
Institutional Ownership
Valuations
Analyst Sentiment
Dot-com Era
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Abstract
This thesis investigates whether the recent outperformance of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks—Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla—from 2022 to 2024 reflects strong underlying fundamentals or speculative excess fueled by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. Using cumulative return indices, valuation ratio heat maps, analyst recommendation data, and hedge fund 13F filings, the study benchmarks each firm against 87 SIC-matched peers and historical dot-com era patterns. The findings suggest a selective, rather than systemic, speculative episode. Nvidia exhibits classic bubble characteristics, including extreme valuation multiples, compressed analyst dispersion, and synchronized hedge fund accumulation. In contrast, Meta reflects genuine forecast uncertainty and earnings surprises, while Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet maintain elevated yet stable valuation metrics. Tesla underperforms in analyst sentiment and hedge fund exposure despite trading at high multiples. Overall, the evidence indicates that the AI rally diverges from the dot-com boom: institutional investors are tracking benchmark weights rather than indiscriminately rotating into the sector, and analyst exuberance is concentrated in firms with dominant narratives.