Bayesian Nonparametric Inference of Switching Linear Dynamical Systems

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Statistics Papers
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Bayes methods
autoregressive processes
inference mechanisms
linear systems
nonparametric statistics
sampling methods
target tracking
time-varying systems
Bayesian nonparametric inference
IBOVESPA stock index
complex dynamical phenomena
conditionally linear dynamical mode
dancing honey bee
hierarchical Dirichlet process
state sequence
switching dynamic linear model
target tracking sampling algorithm
vector autoregressive process
autoregressive processes
Bayesian methods
hidden Markov models
state-space methods
time series analysis
unsupervised learning
Computer Sciences
Statistics and Probability
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Fox, Emily B
Sudderth, Erik B
Jordan, Michael I
Willsky, Alan
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Abstract

Many complex dynamical phenomena can be effectively modeled by a system that switches among a set of conditionally linear dynamical modes. We consider two such models: the switching lineardynamical system (SLDS) and the switching vector autoregressive (VAR) process. Our Bayesiannonparametric approach utilizes a hierarchical Dirichlet process prior to learn an unknown number of persistent, smooth dynamical modes. We additionally employ automatic relevance determination to infer a sparse set of dynamic dependencies allowing us to learn SLDS with varying state dimension orswitching VAR processes with varying autoregressive order. We develop a sampling algorithm that combines a truncated approximation to the Dirichlet process with efficient joint sampling of the mode and state sequences. The utility and flexibility of our model are demonstrated on synthetic data, sequences of dancing honey bees, the IBOVESPA stock index and a maneuvering target tracking application.

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2011-04-01
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IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing
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