Government Spending, Political Cycles, and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

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Finance Papers
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Finance
Finance and Financial Management
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Belo, Frederico
Gala, Vito D
Li, Jun
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Using a novel measure of industry exposure to government spending, we show predictable variation in cash flows and stock returns over political cycles. During Democratic presidencies, firms with high government exposure experience higher cash flows and stock returns, while the opposite pattern holds true during Republican presidencies. Business cycles, firm characteristics, and standard risk factors do not account for the pattern in returns across presidencies. An investment strategy that exploits the presidential cycle predictability generates abnormal returns as large as 6.9% per annum. Our results suggest market underreaction to predictable variation in the effect of government spending policies.

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2013-02-01
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Journal of Financial Economics
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At the time of publication, author Vito D. Gala was affiliated with the London Business School, United Kingdom. Currently, he is a faculty member at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.
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