Date of Award
2022
Degree Type
Dissertation
Degree Name
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Graduate Group
Finance
First Advisor
Robert Stambaugh
Abstract
The U.S. stock market’s return during the first month of a quarter correlates strongly with returns in future months, but the correlation is negative if the future month is the first month of a quarter, and positive if it is not. These effects offset, leaving the market return with its weak unconditional predictive ability known to the literature. The pattern accords with a model in which investors extrapolate announced earnings to predict future earnings, not recognizing that earnings in the first month of a quarter are inherently less predictable than in other months. Survey data support this model, as does out-of-sample return predictability across industries and international markets. These results challenge the Efficient Market Hypothesis and advance a novel mechanism of expectation formation.
Recommended Citation
Guo, Hongye, "Earnings Extrapolation And Predictable Stock Market Returns" (2022). Publicly Accessible Penn Dissertations. 4996.
https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/4996