Peace, pace and parallax: Toward a quanto-analytic discernment of past security needs and military wants among the import-dependent sovereign countries of developing Eurafrasia

Jose V Ciprut, University of Pennsylvania

Abstract

A quantifiably comparative political explanation is sought, in real economic terms, of the possible influence of aggregate regional armaments imports on the respective military outlays of the individual stakeholders, over time.^ A dynamic model is hypothesized and subjected to empirical scrutiny in a contextualized systemic approach. Perceptive behavioral adjustments by susceptible actors to subjective needs, objective wants and instrumental emulations, are articulated by redesigning Richardsonian "grievance" from a quasi-Straussian, "adaptive expectations", perspective. An embedded discrete-time-dependent surrogate indicator of "regional tension" helps assess the possible influences of the exogenous variables (Arms Imports) on the endogenous ones (Military Expenditures) and the compounded consequences for the dynamic stability of the system as a whole.^ At interplay are 29 developing countries, in 5 geo-political subsystems constituting 1 tricontinental ensemble ("EURAFRASIA"), from 1967 to 1983: 'AFRICA' (Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Chad, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia); 'ARABIA' (YemenAR, YemenPDR, Oman, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait); 'ASIARABIA' (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan: India exogenously);'NEAREAST' (Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Israel, Egypt); 'AEGEO-MEDITERRANEAN' (Greece, Cyprus, Turkey).^ USACDA data series "M80D" and "I80D", smoothed at source for the period 1967-1983, are used for MILITARY EXPENDITURES (million US$, 1980 Exchange Rates, 1980 Constant Prices) and ARMS IMPORTS (million US\$, Current Exchange Rates, Constant 1980 US$).^ OLS techniques help characterize Military Expenditures, at individual, subgroup, and system levels of synthesis. Simulations (scenarios of 15%, 30%, 50% and reference-100% multilateral cuts in regional Arms Imports) permit compare these characterizations. Computed as theoretically prescribed, "desires" are contrasted with "realities" (the "actual" Military Expenditure time series). Heuristic eigenanalytic techniques permit verify system stability (cycles, oscillations, explosiveness dots) under exogenous shocks; generalize 'local trajectories' (into 'time-slice systems') to highlight potential systemic implications; produce a longitudinal "collage" yielding insights otherwise unavailable in conventional eigenanalytic pursuits desensitized to dynamic exogenous shocks.^ Results appear intuitively acceptable and historically plausible. Findings indicate that, for the spatio-temporal domain investigated, policies conducive to greater individual prosperity and collective stability were possible and could have been adopted, precisely by those placed best to benefit most from such. ^

Subject Area

Economics, Commerce-Business

Recommended Citation

Ciprut, Jose V, "Peace, pace and parallax: Toward a quanto-analytic discernment of past security needs and military wants among the import-dependent sovereign countries of developing Eurafrasia" (1987). Dissertations available from ProQuest. AAI8804892.
https://repository.upenn.edu/dissertations/AAI8804892

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