An investigation into the impact of HIV on population dynamics in Africa

Samuel Joseph Clark, University of Pennsylvania


Data from eighteen sites in Africa are used to identify new mortality patterns for Africa; two of which may result from excess mortality caused by HIV/AIDS. To examine the underlying population processes that produce those patterns, and to understand how HIV/AIDS affects a population as a whole, an individual-level, stochastic, computer simulation of an African population infected with HIV is constructed to study the dynamics of an HIV epidemic in Africa. The simulator is tested and demonstrated by constructing uninfected, untreated-infected, and treated-infected virtual populations. The fundamental demographic parameters used to run the model are calculated from 40 year's worth of demographic data collected from the Gwembe Tonga of Southern Zambia. Data on nuptiality, fertility and mortality are used to simulate the population dynamics of a rapidly growing polygynous population. Added to that is a fully parametric HIV module that governs the transmission and progression of HIV/AIDS within individuals in the population. Complementing the design and implementation of the computer simulation of a population with HIV, this work also discusses the theoretical basis for an information management system designed to manage the collection, manipulation and retrieval of longitudinal data—the Structured Population Event History Register (SPEHR).

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Recommended Citation

Clark, Samuel Joseph, "An investigation into the impact of HIV on population dynamics in Africa" (2001). Dissertations available from ProQuest. AAI3031652.