Business Economics and Public Policy Papers

Document Type

Journal Article

Date of this Version

9-2017

Publication Source

The Economic Journal

Volume

127

Issue

604

Start Page

1977

Last Page

2005

DOI

10.1111/ecoj.12359

Abstract

Estimates of average cartel duration and the annual probability of cartel death are based on data for discovered cartels. It is recognised that these estimates could be biased because the population of discovered cartels may not be a representative sample of the latent population of cartels. This article constructs a birth-death-discovery process to investigate the source and direction of possible biases. Bayesian inference is used to provide bounds on the extent of the bias and deliver an improved set of beliefs on the probability of cartel death.

Copyright/Permission Statement

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Harrington, J. E. and Wei, Y. (2017), What Can the Duration of Discovered Cartels Tell Us About the Duration of All Cartels?. Econ J, 127: 1977–2005. doi:10.1111/ecoj.12359, which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12359. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving http://olabout.wiley.com/WileyCDA/Section/id-820227.html#terms

Embargo Date

2-22-2019

Available for download on Friday, February 22, 2019

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Date Posted: 27 November 2017

This document has been peer reviewed.