Date of this Version
The Economic Journal
Estimates of average cartel duration and the annual probability of cartel death are based on data for discovered cartels. It is recognised that these estimates could be biased because the population of discovered cartels may not be a representative sample of the latent population of cartels. This article constructs a birth-death-discovery process to investigate the source and direction of possible biases. Bayesian inference is used to provide bounds on the extent of the bias and deliver an improved set of beliefs on the probability of cartel death.
This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Harrington, J. E. and Wei, Y. (2017), What Can the Duration of Discovered Cartels Tell Us About the Duration of All Cartels?. Econ J, 127: 1977–2005. doi:10.1111/ecoj.12359, which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12359. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving http://olabout.wiley.com/WileyCDA/Section/id-820227.html#terms
Harrington, J. E., & Wei, Y. (2017). What Can the Duration of Discovered Cartels Tell Us About the Duration of All Cartels?. The Economic Journal, 127 (604), 1977-2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12359
Date Posted: 27 November 2017
This document has been peer reviewed.