The High-Frequency Response of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements

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Business Economics and Public Policy Papers
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data releases
exchange rates
uncovered interest parity
overshooting
Economics
Other Economics
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Faust, Jon
Rogers, John H
Wang, Shing-Yi
Wright, Jonathan H
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The joint movements of exchange rates and U.S. and foreign term structures over short-time windows around macro announcements are studied using a 14-year span of high-frequency data. In order to evaluate whether the joint effects can be reconciled with conventional theory, the implications of these joint movements for changes in expected future exchange rates and changes in foreign exchange risk premia are deduced. For several real macro announcements, a stronger than expected release appreciates the dollar today, and must either (i) lower the risk premium for holding foreign currency rather than dollars, or (ii) imply net expected dollar depreciation over the ensuing decade.

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2007-05-01
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Journal of Monetary Economics
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