The Party's Over: The Role of Earnings Guidance in Resolving Sentiment-Driven Overvaluation

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Penn collection
Accounting Papers
Degree type
Discipline
Subject
finance
asset pricing
management
earnings guidance
investor sentiment
market efficiency
Accounting
Business Administration, Management, and Operations
Marketing
Funder
Grant number
License
Copyright date
Distributor
Related resources
Author
Seybert, Nicholas
Yang, Holly I
Contributor
Abstract

This paper shows that an important link between investor sentiment and firm overvaluation is optimistic earnings expectations, and that management earnings guidance helps resolve sentiment-driven overvaluation. Using previously identified firm characteristics, we find that most of the negative returns to uncertain firms in months following high-sentiment periods fall within the three-day window around the issuance of management earnings guidance. Comparisons of guidance months to nonguidance months show that guidance issuance affects the magnitude and not just the daily distribution of negative returns. There is also some evidence of negative returns around earnings announcements for firms that previously issued guidance, suggesting that guidance does not entirely correct optimistic earnings expectations. To provide additional insight into the strength of the guidance effect, we show that the market reacts more strongly to surprises, particularly negative surprises, following high-sentiment periods. Finally, firms with higher transient institutional ownership are less likely to guide, and their guidance is less likely to contain bad news following high-sentiment periods, indicating that managers with a short-term focus are hesitant to correct optimistic market expectations.

Advisor
Date Range for Data Collection (Start Date)
Date Range for Data Collection (End Date)
Digital Object Identifier
Series name and number
Publication date
2012-02-01
Journal title
Management Science
Volume number
Issue number
Publisher
Publisher DOI
Journal Issue
Comments
At the time of publication, Holly Yang was affiliated with the University of Pennsylvania but she is currently part of the faculty at the Singapore Management University.
Recommended citation
Collection