Copyright (c) 2009 University of Pennsylvania All rights reserved. http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars Recent documents in Wharton Research Scholars Journal en-us Mon, 29 Jun 2009 22:51:11 PDT 3600 http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/54 http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/54 Fri, 10 Oct 2008 10:14:25 PDT The problem of the Chinese financial system with non performing loans is significant and murky. If China's non performing loan problem exists on a certain level of severity and is not trending toward a more manageable state, then China could be moving toward financial crisis. Empirical and theoretical studies in recent years have implied that this might be the case. It might be impossible to conclusively prove or disprove notions that non-performing loans will cause financial crisis in China. However, little academic inquiry has very recently been focused toward the holistic "puzzle" of China's NPL issue, and it could be considered worthwhile to simply attempt to trace a broad outline of the issue. The aim of this study is two-fold: first, it attempts to basically identify and circumscribe the different "puzzle pieces" that exist in trying to understand China's bad asset issue. Second, it aims to combine basic perspectives on the issue from multiple disciplines in a generalized way, and tentatively evaluate the inventoried "puzzle pieces" to propose a limited holistic interpretation of available facts and opinions. Jonathan Richter University of Pennsylvania http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/53 http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/53 Fri, 10 Oct 2008 10:06:30 PDT For a business, it's important to know the repeat purchasing behavior of an existing customer. However, in a non-contractual setting, businesses cannot easily observe whether a customer is still active. The Beta-Geometric/Beta Binomial (BG/BB) model developed by Fader and Hardie in 2004 serves as a natural framework to model these types of behaviors. We further evaluate the BG/BB model by applying two different versions of the model to a dataset of 1975 customers over a period of 16 years to evaluate the predictive abilities of the BG/BB, and compares it with the Binary Logistic Regression model to determine whether the BG/BB model can give accurate forecasts over a long period of time. Harvey Yang Zhang http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/52 http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/52 Fri, 10 Oct 2008 10:01:04 PDT The rise of social networking websites such as MySpace and Facebook over the past decade has been nothing short of phenomenal. Once regarded as nothing more than a passing "fad", these websites have grown to astronomical proportions; each website currently boasts 60+ million unique visitors each month. Certain businesses are beginning to notice the potential for reaching out to their target audiences through this new medium and have already begun a series of advertising efforts in order to do so; however, the spend on this form of advertising is relatively minor compared to other efforts. This paper will establish why social networks are important to businesses as an advertising medium and attempt to review the current advertising methods that are in place. Mrinal Todi http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/51 http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/51 Fri, 10 Oct 2008 09:54:39 PDT A changing nonprofit environment, stronger demands for nonprofit services and an impending leadership deficit has caused the nonprofit sector to place an even greater emphasis on leadership and leadership development. This research examines the changes in the sector and the skills required of leaders to adapt to these changes. Interviews with current nonprofit leaders, aspiring leaders and directors of nonprofit management programs shed light on the trends in leadership development, the challenges and opportunities, and recommendations for the sector. Aspiring nonprofit leaders, universities and nonprofit organizations can all play a role in ensuring the future success of the nonprofit sector by developing quality leaders. Lisa Jiang http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/50 http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/50 Fri, 10 Oct 2008 09:49:19 PDT Defined as "the division of public authority between two or more constitutionally defined orders of government - and a set of ideas which underpin such institutions", federalism emphasizes issues such as shared and divided sovereignty, multiple loyalties and identities, and governance through multi‐level institutions. Proponents of federalism have linked federalism with improved economic and social benefits, including increased political participation and personal liberties, efficient public and private markets, and a check on governmental power. Nevertheless, few studies have attempted to empirically prove these claims. In "Federalism's Values and Value of Federalism", Robert Inman created a multiple regression model to assess the contribution of federal governance to a country's economic and social performance. Although Inman's model provides an important empirical framework, his broad analysis did not incorporate the unique context and history of different countries, or explain the variation in the results. Hence, through a case‐study of six Latin American countries and analysis of key social, economic, and rights indicators, this paper seeks to answer the following research question: How does federalism affect the economic and social performance of Latin American countries? The conclusions are as follows: (1) Diffusion of political power improves rights performance and democratic accountability, of which federalism provides an important institutional framework, (2) The contribution of federalism to aggregate economic performance remains ambiguous, (3) Decentralization improves access to public goods, in both federal and unitary governments, (4) Federalism, however, potentially creates political fragmentation that may block important reforms or give rise to a power vacuum for populist leaders. As a result, rights performance, democratic accountability, and economic and social progress may stall or deteriorate. Joyce Meng http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/49 http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/49 Wed, 08 Oct 2008 07:30:59 PDT This paper examines ticket sales data from events held at a large entertainment venue to develop a model that forecasts ticket sales. Data from thirteen different events are used, and the model chosen is a timing model which draws from two Weibull segments and clusters events into 2 separate groups.The paper provides some background into why forecasting ticket sales is a critical element of event planning. It then examines the data available to determine the specific modeling needs. Finally, the model approach is presented and the results of the chosen model are shown. Jacob Suher http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/48 http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/48 Wed, 08 Oct 2008 07:19:57 PDT "Harmonious Society" was proposed by Chinese President Hu Jintao as early as 2005 as the Chinese approach towards development. This generated significant excitement among observers of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) who see CSR and Harmonious Society as sharing common objectives. This paper seeks to explore whether Harmonious Society will result in an increase in CSR engagement by Chinese firms. It does so by drawing up a list of actions that if taken by the government would increase the level of CSR in China and make Harmonious Society a relevant factor in the development of Chinese CSR. To do so, my paper develops a framework for studying the elements that affect the level of CSR by dividing causes of CSR into a societal "demand" side and a discretionary "supply" side. Understanding what drives the development of CSR allows us to understand what measures governments can take to influence the level of CSR through these elements. Using this framework, my paper also finds that CSR in China in the near future will be largely concentrated in SOE and is unlikely to be widespread in the growing private-sector of China. Geoffrey See http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/47 http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/47 Wed, 08 Oct 2008 07:10:44 PDT The management of catastrophic risk comprises a growing social, political, and economic challenge of our time. Recent natural disasters have dramatized the need for supplemental insurance avenues, including long term insurance and multiyear cat bonds, which hedge against long term liability exposure. An empirical examination of cat bond issuance volume over the past decade reveals that long term, multiyear cat bonds with tenors of more than 3 years pale in liquidity versus short term cat bonds. The paper helps to explain this asymmetry by building an integrated behavioral finance model for economic decision making in catastrophic contexts and by using results from the investor psychology literature. Sandip Garg http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/46 http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/46 Wed, 17 Oct 2007 13:26:57 PDT Edmund Lee http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/45 http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/45 Wed, 17 Oct 2007 13:21:09 PDT Chirag Mahatma