Copyright (c) 2012 University of Pennsylvania All rights reserved. http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers Recent documents in PSC Working Paper Series en-us Tue, 17 Jan 2012 11:04:25 PST 3600 http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/32 http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/32 Tue, 03 Jan 2012 07:29:34 PST Marriage has declined since 1960, with the drop being bigger for non-college educated individuals versus college educated ones. Divorce has increased, more so for the non-college educated vis-a-vis the college educated. Additionally, assortative mating has risen; i.e., people are more likely to marry someone of the same educational level today than in the past. A unified model of marriage, divorce, educational attainment and married female labor-force participation is developed and estimated to fit the postwar U.S. data. The role of technological progress in the household sector and shifts in the wage structure for explaining these facts is gauged.

]]> Jeremy Greenwood et al. http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/31 http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/31 Mon, 05 Dec 2011 06:30:28 PST Using data on MZ (monozygotic, identical) female twins from the Minnesota Twin Registry, we estimate the causal effect of schooling on completed fertility, probability of being childless and age at first birth, using the within-MZ twins methodology. We find strong cross-sectional associations between schooling and the fertility outcomes and some evidence that more schooling causes women to have fewer children and delay childbearing, though not to the extent that interpreting cross-sectional associations as causal would imply. Our conclusions are robust when taking account of (1) endogenous within-twin pair schooling differences due to reverse causality and (2) measurement error in schooling. We also investigate possible mechanisms and find that the effect of women’s schooling on completed fertility is not mediated through husband’s schooling but rather through age at first marriage.

]]> Vikesh Amin et al. http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/30 http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/30 Mon, 03 Oct 2011 06:34:42 PDT A fundamental switch in the fertility—development relationship has occurred so that among highly developed countries, further socioeconomic development may reverse the declining fertility trend. Here we shed light on the mechanisms underlying this reversal by analyzing the links between development and age and cohort patterns of fertility, as well as the role of gender equality. Using data from 1975 to 2008 for over 100 countries, we show that the reversal exists both in a period and a cohort perspective and is mainly driven by increasing older reproductive-age fertility. We also show that the positive impact of development on fertility in high-development countries is conditional on gender equality: countries ranking high in development as measured by health, income, and education but low in gender equality continue to experience declining fertility. Our findings suggest that gender equality is crucial for countries wishing to reap the fertility dividend of high development.

]]> Mikko Myrskylä et al. http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/29 http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/29 Thu, 15 Sep 2011 08:43:59 PDT This paper proposes using a new metric, h, and new data, drawn from Google Scholar, for ranking sociology journals. This approach is more comprehensive in several ways than the commonly used “journal impact factor.” It includes a longer time-frame and draws on a broader data base. It provides editors and prospective authors with a more informative picture of the strengths and weaknesses of different journals. Moreover, readily available software enables do-it-yourself assessments of journals. While the position of individual journals varies with the new measure, a clear hierarchy of journals remains no matter what assessment metric is used.

]]> Jerry A. Jacobs http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/28 http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/28 Fri, 29 Jul 2011 07:15:44 PDT Subjective expectations are likely to be an important determinant of health-related behaviors in a high-HIV-prevalence environment. We use probabilistic expectations data elicited from survey respondents in rural Malawi to investigate how risky sexual behavior may be influenced by individuals’ survival expectations, which in turn depend on the perceived impact of HIV/AIDS on survival; expectations about their own and their partner’s HIV status; and expectations about HIV transmission rates. We find that subjective expectations play an important role in determining the decision to have multiple sexual partners. Using our estimated parameters, we simulate the impact of various policies that would influence expectations. An information campaign on mortality risk would decrease risky sexual behavior, while an information campaign on HIV transmission risks, which tend to be overestimated by respondents, would actually increase risky behavior. Also, the expansion of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) treatments to all individuals sick with AIDS would increase risky sexual behavior among HIV-negative individuals or those who have not been tested because individuals are aware that ART increases life expectancy, and thus reduces the cost of becoming HIV-positive.

]]> Adeline Delavande et al. http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/27 http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/27 Wed, 25 May 2011 07:42:53 PDT Intergenerational transfers and relations in sub-Saharan Africa are only poorly understood, despite the alleged importance of family networks and family resource transfers to ameliorate the implications of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and the effect of the epidemic on the availability of kin and the structure of multi-generational families. Our analyses fill an important niche in the literature by using innovative longitudinal data from rural Malawi that includes extensive information on intergenerational transfer relations across three generations living in a context characterized by high poverty, a generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic and high levels of morbidity and mortality. We estimate the age patterns of transfers and the multiple directions of transfer flows—from prime-aged respondents to their elderly parents as well as their co-residing and non-coresiding adult children age 15+. Our major findings include that: (1) Financial net transfers are strongly age-patterned and the middle generations are net providers of transfers to their adult children and elderly parents; (2) Non-financial transfers are based on mutual assistance rather than reallocation of resources to worse-off family members; and (3), Provision and receipt of transfers are generally not related to the health status of our adult respondents, including HIV+ status and perception of HIV infection despite widespread perceptions that HIV+ status is primary determinant of such transfers.

]]> Iliana V. Kohler et al. http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/26 http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/26 Fri, 25 Feb 2011 08:34:30 PST Tobacco is the largest single cause of premature death in the developed world. Two methods of estimating the number of deaths attributable to smoking use mortality from lung cancer as an indicator of the damage from smoking. We reestimate the coefficients of one of these, the Preston/Glei/Wilmoth model, using recent data from U.S. states. We calculate smoking attributable fractions for the 50 states and the U.S. as a whole in 2000 and 2004. We estimate that 21% of adult deaths among men and 17% among women were attributable to smoking in 2004. Across states, attributable fractions range from 11% to 30% among men and from 7% to 23% among women. Smoking related mortality also explains as much as 60% of the mortality disadvantage of Southern states. At the national level, our estimates are in close agreement with those of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and Preston/Glei/Wilmoth, particularly for men. But we find greater variability by state than does CDC. We suggest that our coefficients are suitable for calculating smoking-attributable mortality in contexts with relatively mature cigarette smoking epidemics.

]]> Andrew Fenelon et al. http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/25 http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/25 Wed, 02 Feb 2011 12:31:23 PST The extent of openness to international trade may alter incentives differentially by gender for labor force participation, particularly in economies in which gender differentials in human capital investments such as schooling are large and in which norms about gender behaviors are strong. This paper uses historical census data since 1951 and two recent Labor Force Surveys to investigate the impact of international trade openness on gender differences in labor force participation rates in broad occupational categories in Pakistan. The method used controls for average gender differences in these occupational categories and the unobserved factors that affect male and female labor force participation rates equally. The estimates indicate that increased international trade significantly reduces the gap between male and female labor force participation.

]]> Asma Hyder et al. http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/24 http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/24 Fri, 28 Jan 2011 10:31:36 PST Background. The US has the highest prevalence of obesity and one of the lowest life expectancies among OECD countries. While it is plausible to assume that these two phenomena are related, no previous attempt has been made to identify the connection between them. Our paper uses primary data on body mass index (BMI) in 16 countries and detailed information on the mortality risks of obesity to estimate the effect of international differences in obesity on comparative levels of longevity. Methods. We estimate the fraction of deaths from all causes attributable to obesity by country, age and sex. We then re-estimate life tables in 2006 by removing deaths attributable to obesity. To allow for the possibility of a secular decline in obesity risks, we employ two alternative sets of risks drawn from a more recent period than the baseline risks. Results. In our baseline analysis, we estimate that US life expectancy at age 50 in 2006 was reduced by 1.54 years (95% condence interval (CI) 1.37-1.93) for women and by 1.85 years (1.62-2.10) for men as a result of obesity. Relative to higher life expectancy countries, allowance for obesity reduces the US shortfall in life expectancy by 42% (36-48) for women and 67% (57-76) for men. Using obesity risks that were recorded more recently, differences in obesity still account for a fifth to a third of the shortfall of life expectancy in the US relative to longer-lived countries. Conclusions. The high prevalence of obesity in the US contributes substantially to its poor international ranking in longevity.

]]> Samuel H. Preston et al. http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/23 http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/23 Mon, 29 Nov 2010 07:47:34 PST The empirical literature on HIV and the quality (Q) and quantity (N) of children generally reports negative associations for Q and unclear associations for N. We focus our analysis on the effects of HIV, as a predictor of mother and child mortality, on investments in child Q and N. We develop a Q-N model within which higher mothers’ mortality predicts lower N while higher child mortality predicts lower Q. Those effects together make reasonable the expectation of negative influences of higher HIV likelihood on child Q and N. Based on longitudinal micro data on mothers and their children in rural Malawi we find that variation in mothers’ reported HIV risk reduces both child quality, as reflected in children’s schooling and health, and child quantity, when the perceived risk is already moderate or high. The effects are sizable, and, in the case of Q (schooling and health) are found in children and teenagers, as well as boys and girls, while in the case of N are found for young and mature women.

]]> Ruben Castro et al. http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/22 http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/22 Thu, 09 Sep 2010 14:36:44 PDT A framework is presented for considering for what health conditions in developing countries the marginal social benefits of demographic and social science research are likely to be relatively high. Based on this framework, it is argued that the relative current and future predicted prevalence of burdens of different health/disease conditions as measured by Disability-Adjusted-Life-Years (DALYs) represent fairly well some important factors related to the relative marginal social benefits of demographic and social science research on different health conditions. World Health Organization (WHO) DALYs projections for 2005-30 are compared with (a) demographic and other social science studies on health in developing countries during 1990-2005 and (b) presentations at the Population Association of America annual meetings during the same time period. These comparisons suggest that, recent demographic and social science research on health in developing countries has overfocused substantially relatively on HIV/AIDS and underfocused substantially relatively on non-communicable diseases.

]]> Jere R. Behrman et al. http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/21 http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/21 Tue, 24 Aug 2010 07:41:15 PDT Twins have been extensively used in both economic and behavioral genetics to investigate the role of genetic endowments on a broad range of social, demographic and economic outcomes. However, the focus in these two literatures has been distinct: the economic literature has been primarily concerned with the need to control for unobserved endowments—including as an im¬portant subset, genetic endowments—in analyses that attempt to establish the impact of one vari¬able, often schooling, on a variety of economic, demographic and health outcomes. Behavioral genetic analyses have mostly been concerned with decomposing the variation in the outcomes of interest into genetic, shared environmental and non-shared environmental components, with recent multivariate analyses investigating the contributions of genes and the environment to the correlation and causation between variables. Despite the fact that twins studies and the recogni¬tion of the role of endowments are central to both of these literatures, they have mostly evolved independently. In this paper we develop formally the relationship between the economic and behavioral genetic approaches to the analyses of twins, and we develop an integrative approach that combines the identification of causal effects, which dominates the economic literature, with the decomposition of variances and covariances into genetic and environmental factors that is the primary goal of behavioral genetic approaches. We apply this new integrative approach to an illustrative investigation of the impact of schooling on several demographic outcomes such as fertility and nuptiality and health.

]]> Hans-Peter Kohler et al. http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/20 http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/20 Mon, 26 Jul 2010 07:17:28 PDT A large study of nurses conducted in the U.S. states of California (CA) and Pennsylvania (PA) is based on two large samples: n^CA≈100,000 and n^PA≈65,000. The study was conducted by mail and had response rates of: p^CA=.27 and p^PA=.39 ;; the number of respondents is thus, respectively, : n_1^CA≈28,000 and n_1^PA≈25,000. Although there are many respondents, we must concern ourselves with the possibility of substantial bias due to non-response. In order to estimate and correct for this bias, a second random sample (n_01=1,300 in the two states combined) was drawn from among the non-respondents to the first survey. Thanks to financial incentives and, above all, a shorter questionnaire, we obtained a response rate above 90%. In each state, the two samples were combined to create a virtually unbiased double sample.

]]> Herbert L. Smith http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/19 http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/19 Thu, 15 Jul 2010 11:47:54 PDT Madden (2004) and Madden and Ruther (2009) provide evidence that African American National Football League (NFL) head coaches significantly out-performed their white counterparts between 1990 and 2002. They conclude that this evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that African Americans had to be better coaches than whites in order to be hired as a head coach in the NFL. In 2002, the NFL promulgated the Rooney Rule requiring NFL teams to interview a minority candidate when appointing new head coaches, as well as other affirmative efforts. This paper analyzes whether the performance advantage of African American head coaches has been eliminated in the time since the Rooney Rule’s affirmative efforts have been in effect. The paper also examines racial differentials in performance in other NFL coaching positions that were less affected by Rooney Rule affirmative efforts, finding no similar time trends in performance differentials by race.

]]> Janice F. Madden et al. http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/18 http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/18 Tue, 22 Jun 2010 12:51:00 PDT This paper demonstrates that the apparently much higher Hispanic/Mexican fertility is almost exclusively the product of period estimates obtained for immigrant women and that period measures of immigrant fertility suffer from 3 serious sources of biases that together significantly overstate fertility levels: difficulties in estimating the size of immigrant groups; the tendency for migration to occur at a particular stage in life; and most importantly the tendency for women to have a birth soon after migration. Once these sources of bias are taken into consideration the fertility of native Hispanic/Mexican women is very close to replacement level. In addition, the completed fertility of immigrant women in the United States is dramatically lower than the level obtained from period calculations. Findings are consistent with classical theories of immigrant assimilation but are a striking departure from the patterns found in previous studies and published statistics. The main implication is that, without a significant change in immigration levels, current projections based on the premise of high Hispanic fertility are likely to considerably exaggerate Hispanic population growth, its impact on the ethno-racial profile of the country, and its potential to counteract population aging.

]]> Emilio A. Parrado http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/17 http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/17 Tue, 02 Feb 2010 07:02:23 PST Between 1972 and 1978 U.S. high schools rapidly increased their female athletic participation rates—to approximately the same level as their male athletic participation rates—in order to comply with Title IX, a policy change that provides a unique quasi-experiment in female athletic participation. This paper examines the causal implications of this expansion in female sports participation by using variation in the level of boys’ athletic participation across states before Title IX to instrument for the change in girls’ athletic participation. Analysis of differences in outcomes across states in changes between pre- and post-cohorts reveals that a 10-percentage point rise in state-level female sports participation generates a 1 percentage point increase in female college attendance and a 1 to 2 percentage point rise in female labor force participation. Furthermore, greater opportunities to play sports leads to greater female participation in previously male-dominated occupations, particularly in high-skill occupations.

]]> Betsey Stevenson http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/16 http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/16 Fri, 15 Jan 2010 13:38:29 PST Societies socialize children about sex. This is done in the presence of peer-group effects, which may encourage undesirable behavior. Parents want the best for their children. Still, they weigh the marginal gains from socializing their children against its costs. Churches and states may stigmatize sex, both because of a concern about the welfare of their flocks and the need to control the cost of charity associated with out-of-wedlock births. Modern contraceptives have profoundly affected the calculus for instilling sexual mores. As contraception has improved there is less need for parents, churches and states to inculcate sexual mores. Technology affects culture.

]]> Jesus Fernández-Villaverde et al. http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/15 http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/15 Mon, 04 Jan 2010 07:06:58 PST Despite the voluminous literature on the potentials of single-sex schools, there is no consensus on the effects of single-sex schools because of student selection of school types. We exploit a unique feature of schooling in Seoul, the random assignment of students into single-sex versus coeducational high schools, to assess causal effects of single-sex schools on college entrance exam scores and college attendance. Our validation of the random assignment shows comparable socioeconomic backgrounds and prior academic achievement of students attending single-sex schools and coeducational schools, which increases the credibility of our causal estimates of single-sex school effects. Attending all-boys schools or all-girls schools rather than attending coeducational schools is significantly associated with higher average scores on Korean and English test scores. Single-sex schools have a higher percentage of graduates who attended four-year colleges and a lower percentage of graduates who attended two-year junior colleges than coeducational schools. The positive effects of single-sex schools remain substantial, even after taking into account various school-level variables such as teacher quality, the student-teacher ratio, the proportion of students receiving lunch support, and whether the schools are public or private.

]]> Hyunjoon Park et al. http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/14 http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/14 Wed, 16 Dec 2009 13:56:50 PST Jessica Y. Ho et al. http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/13 http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/13 Mon, 27 Jul 2009 08:59:41 PDT Life expectancy in the United States fares poorly in international comparisons, primarily because of high mortality rates above age 50. Its low ranking is often blamed on a poor performance by the health care system rather than on behavioral or social factors. This paper presents evidence on the relative performance of the US health care system using death avoidance as the sole criterion. We find that, by standards of OECD countries, the US does well in terms of screening for cancer, survival rates from cancer, survival rates after heart attacks and strokes, and medication of individuals with high levels of blood pressure or cholesterol. We consider in greater depth mortality from prostate cancer and breast cancer, diseases for which effective methods of identification and treatment have been developed and where behavioral factors do not play a dominant role. We show that the US has had significantly faster declines in mortality from these two diseases than comparison countries. We conclude that the low longevity ranking of the United States is not likely to be a result of a poorly functioning health care system.

]]> Samuel H. Preston et al.