Population Center Working Papers (PSC/PARC)

The Population Center Working Papers (PSC/PARC) series contains papers by researchers at the PSC/PARC. It serves as an outlet for pre-prints, for papers under journal review, and for background papers (e.g., for technical materials for which journals lack space) written by PSC/PARC Research Associates. The series also publishes submissions from students affiliated with Research Associates at the PSC/PARC with Research Associate sponsorship. The PSC/PARC series combines works previously published in the Population Studies Center Working Paper Series and the Population Aging Research Center Working Paper Series and also includes papers from the Penn Education and Inequality Working Papers Series. Papers can be submitted by emailing: psc-library@pop.upenn.edu.

 

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 103
  • Publication
    The Long-Term Consequences of Family Planning in Old Age: Evidence from China's "Later, Longer, Fewer" Campaign
    (2019-05-20) Chen, Yi; Fang, Hanming
    Family planning plays a central role in contemporary population policies. However, little is known about its long-term consequences in old age. In this study, we examine how family planning policies implemented in China in the early 1970s affect the quality of life of the Chinese elderly forty years later. The direction of the effect is theoretically unclear. On the one hand, having fewer children allows parents to reallocate more resources to themselves, improving their well-being. On the other hand, having fewer children also leads to less care and companionship from children in old age. To empirically investigate the effect of family planning, we identify the causal impact by exploiting the provincial heterogeneity in implementing the "Later, Longer, Fewer" (LLF) policies in the early 1970s. We find that the LLF policies greatly reduced the number of children born to couples by 0.85. Parents also receive less support from children in terms of living arrangements, inter vivos transfers, and emotional support. Finally, we find that the impacts of the family planning policies on elderly parent's physical and mental well-being are drastically different: whereas parents who are more exposed to the family planning policies consume more and enjoy slightly better physical health status, they report more severe depression symptoms.
  • Publication
    “Golden Ages”: A Tale of the Labor Markets in China and the United States
    (2021-12-14) Fang, Hanming; Qiu, Xincheng
    We study the labor markets in China and the United States, the two largest economies in the world, by examining the evolution of their cross-sectional age-earnings profiles during the past thirty years. We find that, first, the peak age in the cross-sectional age-earnings profiles, which we refer to as the “golden age,” stayed almost constant at around 45-50 in the U.S., but decreased sharply from 55 to around 35 in China; second, the age-specific earnings grew drastically in China, but stayed almost stagnant in the U.S.; third, the cross-sectional and life-cycle age-earnings profiles were remarkably similar in the U.S., but differed substantially in China. We propose and empirically implement a decomposition framework to infer from the repeated cross-sectional earnings data the experience effect (i.e., human capital accumulation over the life cycle), the cohort effect (i.e., inter-cohort human capital growth), and the time effect (i.e., changes in the human capital rental prices over time), under an identifying assumption that the growth of the experience effect stops at the end of one’s working career. The decomposition suggests that China has experienced a much larger inter-cohort productivity growth and higher increase in the rental price to human capital, but lower returns to experience, compared to the U.S. We also use the inferred components to revisit several important and classical applications in macroeconomics and labor economics, including growth accounting and the estimation of TFP growth, and the college wage premium and skill-biased technical change.
  • Publication
    Substance Abuse during the Pandemic: Implications for Labor-Force Participation
    (2022-04-04) Greenwood, Jeremy; Guner, Nezih; Kopecky, Karen A.
    The labor-force participation rates of prime-age U.S. workers dropped in March 2020—the start of the COVID-19 pandemic—and have still not fully recovered. At the same time, substance-abuse deaths were elevated during the pandemic relative to trend indicating an increase in the number of substance abusers, and abusers of opioids and crystal methamphetamine have lower labor-force participation rates than non-abusers. Could increased substance abuse during the pandemic be a factor contributing to the fall in labor-force participation? Estimates of the number of additional substance abusers during the pandemic presented here suggest that increased substance abuse accounts for between 9 and 26 percent of the decline in prime-age labor-force participation between February 2020 and June 2021.
  • Publication
    A Sequence-Analysis Approach to the Study of the Transition to Adulthood in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
    (2020-06-09) Sironi, Maria; Barban, Nicola; Pesando, Luca Maria; Furstenberg, Frank F.
    This study investigates whether young people in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have experienced processes of de-standardization of the life course similar to those observed in high-income societies. We provide two contributions to the relevant literature. First, we use data from 263 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) across 69 LMICs, offering the richest comparative account of women’s transition to adulthood (TTA) patterns in the developing world existing to date. In so doing, we shift the focus from individual life-course transitions towards a holistic approach that allows us to characterize the life-course complexity by detailed sequences of events, namely first sexual intercourse, first union, and first birth. Second, using a clustering algorithm based on optimal-matching distances of lifecourse sequences, we identify clusters of TTA and explore their changes across cohorts by region and urban/rural location of residence. Results stress the importance of investigating cross-regional differences in partnership and fertility trajectories by looking at the interrelation and complexity of status combinations. Summarizing the ensuing heterogeneity through four clusters, we document significant differences by macro-regions yet relative stability across cohorts. We interpret the latter as suggestive of cultural specificities that make the TTA resistant to change and slow to converge across regions, if converging at all.
  • Publication
    Changes in Subjective versus Objective Well-Being in India
    (2021-05-12) Kulkarni, Vani S.; Kulkarni, Veena S.; Imai, Katsushi S.; Gaiha, Raghav
    Although there is abundant literature on subjective well-being (SWB), there is virtually none for India. Growing recognition of the validity and accuracy of measures of SWB of well-being underlies the rapid growth of literature on SWB in recent decades but it has mainly focused on developed countries. Ours is, to our knowledge, the first study of SWB at the all-India level, and one of the few on developing countries, with a rigorous validation of the results. Applying robust OLS and ordered probit models to the India Human Development Survey (IHDS) panel data in 2005 and 2012, we assess SWB changes in 2005-2012, based on a self-reported measure of changes in economic well-being, as a function of household and state covariates in 2005. This is in sharp contrast with earlier studies’ focus on the levels of SWB. Another point of departure of our study and an innovative extension is to compare the covariates of SWB changes with those of objective well-being (OWB) changes, proxied by the relative growth in real per capita household consumption between 2005 and 2012. Households with an older and educated head in a larger household, located in urban areas or affluent states in 2005 tend to experience further improvement in both SWB and OWB between 2005 and 2012. On the contrary, households with a female household head, with more male members in the labour market, with regular access to mass media, without members suffering from non-communicable diseases or disability are more likely to be better off subjectively without experiencing corresponding improvement in OWB. The policy challenges raise serious concerns.
  • Publication
    Wealth Disparities for Early Childhood Anthropometrics and Skills: Evidence from Chilean Longitudinal Data
    (2017-09-01) Behrman, Jere R; Contreras, Dante; Palma, Isidora; Puentes, Esteban
    We study wealth disparities in the formation of anthropometrics, cognitive skills and socio-emotional skills. We use a sample of preschool and early school children in Chile. We extend the previous literature by using longitudinal data, which allow us to study the dynamics of child growth and skills formation. Also, we include information on mother's and father's schooling attainment and mother's cognitive ability. We find that there are no significant anthropometric differences favoring the better-off at birth (and indeed length differences at birth to the disadvantage of the better-off), but during the first 30 months of life wealth disparities in height-for-age z scores (HAZ) favoring the better-off emerge. Moreover, we find wealth disparities in cognitive skills favoring the better-off emerge early in life and continue after children turn 6 years of age. We find no concurrent wealth disparities for and socio-emotional skills. Thus, even though the wealth disparities in birth outcomes if anything favor the poor, significant disparities favoring the rich emerge in the early post-natal period. Mother's education and cognitive ability also are significantly associated with disparities in skill formation.
  • Publication
    Maternal Undernutrition in Adolescence and Child Human Capital Formation over the Life-Course: Evidence from an International Cohort Study
    (2021-02-03) Georgiadis, Andreas; Benny, Liza; Behrman, Jere R.; Dornan, Paul
    Adolescence has been highlighted as a period when environments are critical for the human capital development of women, and thus of their children, but evidence on this from low- and middle-income countries is scarce. We estimate the effect of mother adolescent undernutrition on offspring growth and development from infancy through adolescence using data from Ethiopia, India, Peru, and Vietnam and Instrumental Variables (IV) estimation that employs rainfall shocks during mother’s adolescence as instruments for mother’s nutritional status. We find a positive and significant effect of mother adolescent nutritional status on child height-for-age in infancy that persists through to adolescence and evidence that this may manifest mainly through a biological channel. Our results also support a significant impact of rainfall shocks during mother’s early adolescence on mother’s adult height and child growth from infancy to adolescence. We find no significant effect of mother’s adolescent nutritional status and rainfall shocks during mother’s adolescence on child achievement tests scores, however.
  • Publication
    Occupation-Based Socioeconomic Index with Percentile Ranks
    (2020-12-01) Song, Xi; Xie, Yu
    In this paper, we propose a method for constructing an occupation-based socioeconomic index that can easily incorporate occupational structure changes. The resulting index is the education percentile rank of an occupation for a given cohort, based on contemporaneous information pertaining to education composition and the number of workers at the occupation level. An occupation may experience an increase or decrease in its ranking when either education or size of relevant occupations change. The method is flexible in dealing with changes in occupation and education measurements over time. Applying the method to U.S. history from the mid-nineteenth century to the present day, we derive the index using the IPUMS U.S. Census microdata from 1850 to 2000 and the American Community Surveys (ACS) from 2001 to 2018. Compared to previous occupational measures, this new measure takes into account occupational status evolvement caused by long-term secular changes in occupational distributions and education composition. The resulting percentile rank measure can be easily merged with social surveys and administrative data that include occupational measures based on the U.S. Census occupation codes and crosswalks.
  • Publication
    Aging, Depression, Non-Communicable Diseases and Disabilities in South Africa
    (2018-07-16) Pandey, Manoj K.; Kulkarni, Vani S.; Gaiha, Raghav
    This is the first study that offers a comprehensive analysis of depression among the old (60+ years) in South Africa. This study uses four waves of a panel survey of the South Africa National Income Dynamics Study (SA-NIDS) during 2008-2014. A state-of-art econometric methodology has been used to unravel the factors underlying depression among the old over the period 2008-2014. Depending on whether the dependent variable is binary (self-reported depression for ≥ 3 days in a week) or continuous (as in measures of overall depression and severe depression), we use random effects probit with Mundlak adjustment or simply random effects with Mundlak adjustment. Among the old, those more likely to be depressed are: those in their sixties, Africans and Coloureds, women, those suffering from multimorbidity, those with multiple limitations in ADLs, those in lower asset quartiles and individuals who suffered family bereavements. Factors that attenuate depression include marriage, pension, affluence, trust in a community and familiar neighbourhoods. An important feature of our study is the robustness of the key results. To reduce their depression, more public and private health care investment in the health and well-being of aged in South Africa is recommended.
  • Publication
    Negotiating a Better Future: How Interpersonal Skills Facilitate Inter-generational Investment
    (2018-04-28) Ashraf, Nava; Bau, Natalie; Low, Corinne; McGinn, Kathleen
    Using a randomized control trial, we examine whether offering adolescent girls non-material resources -- specifically, negotiation skills -- can improve educational outcomes in a low-income country. In so doing, we provide the first evidence on the effects of an intervention that increased non-cognitive, interpersonal skills during adolescence. Long-run administrative data shows that negotiation training significantly improved educational outcomes over the next three years. The training had greater effects than two alternative treatments (offering girls a safe physical space with female mentors and offering girls information about the returns to education), suggesting that negotiation skills themselves drive the effect. Further evidence from a lab-in-the-field experiment, which simulates parents' educational investment decisions, and a midline survey suggests that negotiation skills improved girls' outcomes by moving households' human capital investments closer to the efficient frontier. This is consistent with an incomplete contracting model, where negotiation allows daughters to strategically cooperate with parents.