Marketing Papers

 

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Papers from 2012

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Moneyball: Message for Managers, J. Scott Armstrong

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Evidence on the Effects of Mandatory Disclaimers in Advertising With reply to commentators: Should We Put a Price on Free Speech?, Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong

Papers from 2011

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Evidence-based Advertising, J. Scott Armstrong

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Illusions in Regression Analysis, J. Scott Armstrong

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Natural Learning in Higher Education, J. Scott Armstrong

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Research on Forecasting for the Manmade Global Warming Alarm: Testimony to Committee on Science, Space and Technology Subcommittee on Energy and Environment on "Climate Change: Examining the processes used to create science and policy", J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, and Willie Soon

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Research With Built-in Replication: Comment and Further Suggestions for Replication Research, Heiner Evanschitzky and J. Scott Armstrong

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Comparing Face-to-Face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delphi and Prediction Markets on an Estimation Task, Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong

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Role Thinking: Standing in Other People's Shoes to Forecast Decisions in Conflicts, Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong

Papers from 2010

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Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates: A Test of the Index Method, J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe

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Predicting Elections from the Most Important Issue: A Test of the Take-the-Best Heuristic, J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe

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Forecasting Principles, J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, and Andreas Graefe

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Conditions Under Which Index Models Are Useful, Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong

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Forecasting, Andreas Graefe, Kesten C. Green, and J. Scott Armstrong

Papers from 2009

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Using Quasi-Experimental Data to Develop Empirical Generalizations for Persuasive Advertising, J. Scott Armstrong and Sandeep Patnaik

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Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote, Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Alfred G. Cuzán, and Randall J. Jones Jr.

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Validity of Climate Change Forecasting for Public Policy Decision Making, Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon

Papers from 2008

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Predicting Elections from Politicians' Faces, J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, Randall J. Jones Jr., and Malcolm Wright

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Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit, J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, and Willie Soon

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What is the Appropriate Public-Policy Response to Uncertainty?, J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, and Willie Soon

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Benchmark Forecasts for Climate Change, Kester C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon

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The Ombudsman: Verification of Citations: Fawlty Towers of Knowledge?, Malcom Wright and J. Scott Armstrong

Papers from 2007

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Forecasting of Software Development Work Effort: Introduction, J. Scott Armstrong

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Significance Tests Harm Progress in Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong

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Statistical Significance Tests are Unnecessary Even When Properly Done and Properly Interpreted: Reply to Commentaries, J. Scott Armstrong

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Rule-based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations, J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy

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Index Methods for Forecasting: An Application to American Presidential Elections, J. Scott Armstrong and Alfred G. Cúzan

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Replication Research in Marketing Revisited: A Note on a Disturbing Trend, Heiner Evanschitzky, Carsten Baumgarth, Raymond Hubbard, and J. Scott Armstrong

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Structured analogies for forecasting, Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong

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The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong

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Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong

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Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong

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Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared, Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, and Andreas Graefe

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Forecasting Elections Using Expert Surveys: An Application to U. S. Presidential Elections, Randall J. Jones Jr., J. Scott Armstrong, and Alfred G. Cuzán

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Review of Philip E. Tetlock, Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?, Adrian E. Tschoegl and J. Scott Armstrong

Papers from 2006

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Findings from evidence-based forecasting: methods for reducing forecast error, J. Scott Armstrong

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How Practitioners Can Use Evidence-based Forecasting: Reply to Commentaries, J. Scott Armstrong

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How to Make Better Forecasts and Decisions: Avoid Face-to-face Meetings, J. Scott Armstrong

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Making progress in forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong and Robert Fildes

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Competitor-oriented objectives: the myth of market share, J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green

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Why We Don’t Really Know What "Statistical Significance" Means: A Major Educational Failure, Raymond Hubbard and J. Scott Armstrong

Papers from 2005

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The forecasting canon: nine generalizations to improve forecast accuracy, J. Scott Armstrong

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Decomposition by Causal Forces: A Procedure for Forecasting Complex Time Series, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy, and J. Thomas Yokum

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The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?, Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong

Papers from 2004

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Damped Seasonality Factors: Introduction, J. Scott Armstrong

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Does an Academic Research Paper Contain Useful Knowledge? No. (p<.05), J. Scott Armstrong

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Improving Learning at Universities: Who is Responsible?, J. Scott Armstrong

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Answers to Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) in Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy, and Kesten Green

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Structured analogies in forecasting, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong

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Value of expertise for forecasting decisions in conflicts, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong

Papers from 2003

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Discovery and communication of important marketing findings: evidence and proposals, J. Scott Armstrong

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Incentives for Developing and Communicating Principles: A Reply, J. Scott Armstrong

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Review of Anthony Pratkanis and Elliot Aronson, Age of Propaganda: The Everyday Use and Abuse of Persuasion, J. Scott Armstrong

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Review of Ray Fair, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, J. Scott Armstrong

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Review of Roy Batchelor: How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the consensus, J. Scott Armstrong

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The Value of Surprising Findings for Research on Marketing, J. Scott Armstrong

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The Ombudsman: Reaping Benefits from Management Research: Lessons from the Forecasting Principles Project, J. Scott Armstrong and Ruth Pagell

Papers from 2002

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Assessing Game Theory, Role Playing, and Unaided Judgment, J. Scott Armstrong

Papers from 2001

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Automatic Identification of Time-Series Features for Rule-based Forecasting, Monica Adya, Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, and Miles Kennedy

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Combining forecasts, J. Scott Armstrong

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Evaluating Forecasting Methods, J. Scott Armstrong

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Extrapolation for Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data, J. Scott Armstrong

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Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong

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Judgmental Bootstrapping: Inferring Experts' Rules for Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong

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Role Playing: A Method to Forecast Decisions, J. Scott Armstrong

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Selecting Forecasting Methods, J. Scott Armstrong

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Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions?, J. Scott Armstrong

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Standards and Practices for Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong

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Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation, J. Scott Armstrong, Monica Adya, and Fred Collopy

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Hypotheses in marketing science: literature review and publication audit, J. Scott Armstrong, Roderick J. Brodie, and Andrew G. Parsons

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Identification of Asymmetric Prediction Intervals through Causal Forces, J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy

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Potential Diffusion of Expert Systems in Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong and J. Thomas Yokum

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Expert Systems for Forecasting, Fred Collopy, Monica Adya, and J. Scott Armstrong

Papers from 2000

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An Application of Rule-based Forecasting to a Situation Lacking Domain Knowledge, Monica Adya, Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, and Miles Kennedy

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Sales Forecasts for Existing Consumer Products and Services: Do Purchase Intentions Contribute to Accuracy?, J. Scott Armstrong, Vicki Gail Morwitz, and V Kumar

Papers from 1999

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Forecasting for environmental decision making, J. Scott Armstrong

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Introduction to Paper and Commentaries on the Delphi Technique, J. Scott Armstrong

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Readability and Prestige in Scientific Journals, J. Scott Armstrong

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Forecasting for Marketing, J. Scott Armstrong and Roderick J. Brodie

Papers from 1998

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Are student ratings of instruction useful?, J. Scott Armstrong

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Commentary on "Generalizing About Univariate Forecasting Methods", J. Scott Armstrong

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Democracy Does Not Make Good Science: On Reforming Review Procedures for Management Science Journals, J. Scott Armstrong

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Management Science: What Does It Have to Do with Management or Science?, J. Scott Armstrong

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Integration of statistical methods and judgment for time series forecasting: principles from empirical research, J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy

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Competition vs. Profitability, J. Scott Armstrong, Richard Franke, and Paul Vaclavik

Papers from 1997

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Peer Review for Journals: Evidence on Quality Control, Fairness, and Innovation, J. Scott Armstrong

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Review of Barry J. Nalebuff and Adam N. Brandenburger, Co-opetition 1. Revolutionary Mindset that Redefines Competition and Co-operation 2. The Game Theory Strategy that's Changing the Game of Business, J. Scott Armstrong and Terry Clark

Papers from 1996

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Publication of Research on Controversial Topics: The Early Acceptance Procedure, J. Scott Armstrong

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Review of Randall Rothenberg, Where the Suckers Moon: An Advertising Story, J. Scott Armstrong

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The Ombudsman: Management Folklore and Management Science: On Portfolio Planning, Escalation Bias and Such, J. Scott Armstrong

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Competitor Orientation: Effects of Objectives and Information on Managerial Decisions and Profitability, J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy

Papers from 1995

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Quality Control versus Innovation in Research on Marketing, J. Scott Armstrong

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The devil's advocate responds to an MBA student’s claim that research harms learning, J. Scott Armstrong

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On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods, J. Scott Armstrong and Robert Fildes

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Beyond Accuracy: Comparison of Criteria Used to Select Forecasting Methods, J. Thomas Yokum and J. Scott Armstrong

Papers from 1994

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Review of Scott Plous, The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making, J. Scott Armstrong

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The Fertile Field of Meta-analysis: Cumulative Progress in Agricultural Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong

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Effects of portfolio planning methods on decision making: experimental results, J. Scott Armstrong and Roderick J. Brodie

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Portfolio Planning Methods: Faulty Approach or Faulty Research? A Rejoinder to "Making Better Decisions" by Wensley, J. Scott Armstrong and Roderick J. Brodie

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The profitability of winning, J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy