Marketing Papers

Document Type

Book Chapter

Date of this Version

January 1999

Comments

Reprinted from Quantitative Methods in Marketing, edited by Graham J. Hooley and Michael K. Hussey (London: International Thomson Business Press, 1999), pages 92-120.

The authors assert their right to include this material in ScholarlyCommons@Penn.

Abstract

Research on forecasting is extensive and includes many studies that have tested alternative methods in order to determine which ones are most effective. We review this evidence in order to provide guidelines for forecasting for marketing. The coverage includes intentions, Delphi, role playing, conjoint analysis, judgmental bootstrapping, analogies, extrapolation, rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We discuss research about which methods are most appropriate to forecast market size, actions of decision makers, market share, sales, and financial outcomes. In general, there is a need for statistical methods that incorporate the manager's domain knowledge. This includes rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We describe how to choose a forecasting method and provide guidelines for the effective use of forecasts including such procedures as scenarios.

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Date Posted: 14 June 2007