Marketing Papers

Document Type

Journal Article

Date of this Version

10-1-1972

Abstract

The following hypotheses about long-range market forecasting were examined: Hl Objective methods provide more accuracy than do subjective methods. H2 The relative advantage of objective over subjective methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. H3 Causal methods provide more accuracy than do naive methods. H4 The relative advantage of causal over naive methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. Support for these hypotheses was then obtained from the literature and from a study of a single market. The study used three different models to make ex ante forecasts of the U.S. air travel market from 1963 through 1968. These hypotheses imply that econometric methods are more accurate for long range market forecasting than are the major alternatives, expert judgment and extrapolation, and that the relative superiority of econometric methods increases as the time span of the forecast increases.

Comments

Postprint version. Published in Management Science, Volume 19, Issue 2, October 1972, pages 211-221.
Publisher URL: http://mansci.pubs.informs.org/ The authors assert their right to include this material in ScholarlyCommons@Penn.

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Date Posted: 14 June 2007

This document has been peer reviewed.