Marketing Papers

Document Type

Journal Article

Date of this Version

January 1986

Abstract

Before 1960, little empirical research was done on forecasting methods. Since then, the literature has grown rapidly, especially in the area of judgmental forecasting. This research supports and adds to the forecasting guidelines proposed before 1960, such as the value of combining forecasts. New findings have led to significant gains in our ability to forecast and to help people to use forecasts.

What have we reamed about forecasting over the past quarter century? Does recent research provide guidance for making more accurate forecasts, obtaining better assessments of uncertainty, or gaining acceptance of our forecasts?

Comments

Postprint version. Published in Interfaces, Volume 16, Issue 1, January 1986, pages 89-109.
Publisher URL: http://www.aaai.org/AITopics/html/interfaces.html

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Date Posted: 14 June 2007

This document has been peer reviewed.