Date of this Version
Iraq continues to be in the news and confronts us with important questions about the predictability of decisions people make in conflict situations. For some, the plan to invade Iraq was based on poor forecasts about how troops would be received: reasonable people would not have made optimistic forecasts. Others, however, assert that it is hindsight bias that makes the prognosis so clear.
Green, K., & Armstrong, J. S. (2005). The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?. Retrieved from http://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/47
Date Posted: 23 May 2007