Expert Systems for Forecasting

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Penn collection
Marketing Papers
Degree type
Discipline
Subject
Forecasting
Business
Marketing
Funder
Grant number
License
Copyright date
Distributor
Related resources
Author
Collopy, Fred
Adya, Monica
Contributor
Abstract

Expert systems use rules to represent experts’ reasoning in solving problems. The rules are based on knowledge about methods and the problem domain. To acquire knowledge for an expert system, one should rely on a variety of sources, such as textbooks, research papers, interviews, surveys, and protocol analysis. Protocol analysis is especially useful if the area to be modeled is complex or if experts lack an awareness of their processes. Expert systems should be easy to use, incorporate the best available knowledge, and reveal the reasoning behind the recommendations they make. In forecasting, the most promising applications of expert systems are to replace unaided judgment in cases requiring many forecasts, to model complex problems where data on the dependent variable are of poor quality, and to handle semi-structured problems. We found 15 comparisons of forecast validity involving expert systems. As expected, expert systems were more accurate than unaided judgment, six comparisons to one, with one tie. Expert systems were less accurate than judgmental bootstrapping in two comparisons with two ties. There was little evidence with which to compare expert systems and econometric models; expert systems were better in one study and tied in two.

Advisor
Date Range for Data Collection (Start Date)
Date Range for Data Collection (End Date)
Digital Object Identifier
Book title
Series name and number
Publication date
2001-01-01
Volume number
Issue number
Publisher
Publisher DOI
Journal Issue
Comments
Suggested Citation: Collopy, F., Adya, M. and Armstrong, J.S. Expert Systems for Forecasting. In Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (Ed. J. Scott Armstrong). Kluwer, 2001. Publisher URL: http://www.springer.com/business+%26+management/business+for+professionals/book/978-0-7923-7930-0
Recommended citation
Collection