Marketing Papers
Papers from 2012
Moneyball: Message for Managers, J. Scott Armstrong
Evidence on the Effects of Mandatory Disclaimers in Advertising With reply to commentators: Should We Put a Price on Free Speech?, Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 2011
Evidence-based Advertising, J. Scott Armstrong
Illusions in Regression Analysis, J. Scott Armstrong
Natural Learning in Higher Education, J. Scott Armstrong
Research on Forecasting for the Manmade Global Warming Alarm: Testimony to Committee on Science, Space and Technology Subcommittee on Energy and Environment on "Climate Change: Examining the processes used to create science and policy", J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, and Willie Soon
Research With Built-in Replication: Comment and Further Suggestions for Replication Research, Heiner Evanschitzky and J. Scott Armstrong
Comparing Face-to-Face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delphi and Prediction Markets on an Estimation Task, Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
Role Thinking: Standing in Other People's Shoes to Forecast Decisions in Conflicts, Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 2010
Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates: A Test of the Index Method, J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe
Predicting Elections from the Most Important Issue: A Test of the Take-the-Best Heuristic, J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe
Forecasting Principles, J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, and Andreas Graefe
Conditions Under Which Index Models Are Useful, Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
Forecasting, Andreas Graefe, Kesten C. Green, and J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 2009
Using Quasi-Experimental Data to Develop Empirical Generalizations for Persuasive Advertising, J. Scott Armstrong and Sandeep Patnaik
Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote, Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Alfred G. Cuzán, and Randall J. Jones Jr.
Validity of Climate Change Forecasting for Public Policy Decision Making, Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon
Papers from 2008
Predicting Elections from Politicians' Faces, J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, Randall J. Jones Jr., and Malcolm Wright
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit, J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, and Willie Soon
What is the Appropriate Public-Policy Response to Uncertainty?, J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, and Willie Soon
Benchmark Forecasts for Climate Change, Kester C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon
The Ombudsman: Verification of Citations: Fawlty Towers of Knowledge?, Malcom Wright and J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 2007
Forecasting of Software Development Work Effort: Introduction, J. Scott Armstrong
Significance Tests Harm Progress in Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong
Statistical Significance Tests are Unnecessary Even When Properly Done and Properly Interpreted: Reply to Commentaries, J. Scott Armstrong
Rule-based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations, J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy
Index Methods for Forecasting: An Application to American Presidential Elections, J. Scott Armstrong and Alfred G. Cúzan
Replication Research in Marketing Revisited: A Note on a Disturbing Trend, Heiner Evanschitzky, Carsten Baumgarth, Raymond Hubbard, and J. Scott Armstrong
Structured analogies for forecasting, Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong
The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared, Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, and Andreas Graefe
Forecasting Elections Using Expert Surveys: An Application to U. S. Presidential Elections, Randall J. Jones Jr., J. Scott Armstrong, and Alfred G. Cuzán
Review of Philip E. Tetlock, Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?, Adrian E. Tschoegl and J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 2006
Findings from evidence-based forecasting: methods for reducing forecast error, J. Scott Armstrong
How Practitioners Can Use Evidence-based Forecasting: Reply to Commentaries, J. Scott Armstrong
How to Make Better Forecasts and Decisions: Avoid Face-to-face Meetings, J. Scott Armstrong
Making progress in forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong and Robert Fildes
Competitor-oriented objectives: the myth of market share, J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green
Why We Don’t Really Know What "Statistical Significance" Means: A Major Educational Failure, Raymond Hubbard and J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 2005
The forecasting canon: nine generalizations to improve forecast accuracy, J. Scott Armstrong
Decomposition by Causal Forces: A Procedure for Forecasting Complex Time Series, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy, and J. Thomas Yokum
The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?, Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 2004
Damped Seasonality Factors: Introduction, J. Scott Armstrong
Does an Academic Research Paper Contain Useful Knowledge? No. (p<.05), J. Scott Armstrong
Improving Learning at Universities: Who is Responsible?, J. Scott Armstrong
Answers to Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) in Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy, and Kesten Green
Structured analogies in forecasting, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Value of expertise for forecasting decisions in conflicts, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 2003
Discovery and communication of important marketing findings: evidence and proposals, J. Scott Armstrong
Incentives for Developing and Communicating Principles: A Reply, J. Scott Armstrong
Review of Anthony Pratkanis and Elliot Aronson, Age of Propaganda: The Everyday Use and Abuse of Persuasion, J. Scott Armstrong
Review of Ray Fair, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, J. Scott Armstrong
Review of Roy Batchelor: How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the consensus, J. Scott Armstrong
The Value of Surprising Findings for Research on Marketing, J. Scott Armstrong
The Ombudsman: Reaping Benefits from Management Research: Lessons from the Forecasting Principles Project, J. Scott Armstrong and Ruth Pagell
Papers from 2002
Assessing Game Theory, Role Playing, and Unaided Judgment, J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 2001
Automatic Identification of Time-Series Features for Rule-based Forecasting, Monica Adya, Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, and Miles Kennedy
Combining forecasts, J. Scott Armstrong
Evaluating Forecasting Methods, J. Scott Armstrong
Extrapolation for Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data, J. Scott Armstrong
Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong
Judgmental Bootstrapping: Inferring Experts' Rules for Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong
Role Playing: A Method to Forecast Decisions, J. Scott Armstrong
Selecting Forecasting Methods, J. Scott Armstrong
Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions?, J. Scott Armstrong
Standards and Practices for Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong
Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation, J. Scott Armstrong, Monica Adya, and Fred Collopy
Hypotheses in marketing science: literature review and publication audit, J. Scott Armstrong, Roderick J. Brodie, and Andrew G. Parsons
Identification of Asymmetric Prediction Intervals through Causal Forces, J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy
Potential Diffusion of Expert Systems in Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong and J. Thomas Yokum
Expert Systems for Forecasting, Fred Collopy, Monica Adya, and J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 2000
An Application of Rule-based Forecasting to a Situation Lacking Domain Knowledge, Monica Adya, Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, and Miles Kennedy
Sales Forecasts for Existing Consumer Products and Services: Do Purchase Intentions Contribute to Accuracy?, J. Scott Armstrong, Vicki Gail Morwitz, and V Kumar
Papers from 1999
Forecasting for environmental decision making, J. Scott Armstrong
Introduction to Paper and Commentaries on the Delphi Technique, J. Scott Armstrong
Readability and Prestige in Scientific Journals, J. Scott Armstrong
Forecasting for Marketing, J. Scott Armstrong and Roderick J. Brodie
Papers from 1998
Are student ratings of instruction useful?, J. Scott Armstrong
Commentary on "Generalizing About Univariate Forecasting Methods", J. Scott Armstrong
Democracy Does Not Make Good Science: On Reforming Review Procedures for Management Science Journals, J. Scott Armstrong
Management Science: What Does It Have to Do with Management or Science?, J. Scott Armstrong
Integration of statistical methods and judgment for time series forecasting: principles from empirical research, J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy
Competition vs. Profitability, J. Scott Armstrong, Richard Franke, and Paul Vaclavik
Papers from 1997
Peer Review for Journals: Evidence on Quality Control, Fairness, and Innovation, J. Scott Armstrong
Review of Barry J. Nalebuff and Adam N. Brandenburger, Co-opetition 1. Revolutionary Mindset that Redefines Competition and Co-operation 2. The Game Theory Strategy that's Changing the Game of Business, J. Scott Armstrong and Terry Clark
Papers from 1996
Publication of Research on Controversial Topics: The Early Acceptance Procedure, J. Scott Armstrong
Review of Randall Rothenberg, Where the Suckers Moon: An Advertising Story, J. Scott Armstrong
The Ombudsman: Management Folklore and Management Science: On Portfolio Planning, Escalation Bias and Such, J. Scott Armstrong
Competitor Orientation: Effects of Objectives and Information on Managerial Decisions and Profitability, J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy
Papers from 1995
Quality Control versus Innovation in Research on Marketing, J. Scott Armstrong
The devil's advocate responds to an MBA student’s claim that research harms learning, J. Scott Armstrong
On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods, J. Scott Armstrong and Robert Fildes
Beyond Accuracy: Comparison of Criteria Used to Select Forecasting Methods, J. Thomas Yokum and J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 1994
Review of Scott Plous, The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making, J. Scott Armstrong
The Fertile Field of Meta-analysis: Cumulative Progress in Agricultural Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong
Effects of portfolio planning methods on decision making: experimental results, J. Scott Armstrong and Roderick J. Brodie
Portfolio Planning Methods: Faulty Approach or Faulty Research? A Rejoinder to "Making Better Decisions" by Wensley, J. Scott Armstrong and Roderick J. Brodie
The profitability of winning, J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy