Marketing Papers
Papers from 2008
Predicting Elections from Politicians' Faces, J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, Randall J. Jones Jr., and Malcolm Wright
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit, J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, and Willie Soon
Benchmark Forecasts for Climate Change, Kester C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon
Papers from 2007
Significance Tests Harm Progress in Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong
Statistical Significance Tests are Unnecessary Even When Properly Done and Properly Interpreted: Reply to Commentaries, J. Scott Armstrong
Rule-based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations, J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy
Index Methods for Forecasting: An Application to American Presidential Elections, J. Scott Armstrong and Alfred G. Cúzan
Replication Research in Marketing Revisited: A Note on a Disturbing Trend, Heiner Evanschitzky, Carsten Baumgarth, Raymond Hubbard, and J. Scott Armstrong
The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Forecasting Elections Using Expert Surveys: An Application to U. S. Presidential Elections, Randall J. Jones Jr., J. Scott Armstrong, and Alfred G. Cuzán
Review of Philip E. Tetlock, Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?, Adrian E. Tschoegl and J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 2006
Findings from evidence-based forecasting: methods for reducing forecast error, J. Scott Armstrong
How Practitioners Can Use Evidence-based Forecasting: Reply to Commentaries, J. Scott Armstrong
How to Make Better Forecasts and Decisions: Avoid Face-to-face Meetings, J. Scott Armstrong
Making progress in forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong and Robert Fildes
Competitor-oriented objectives: the myth of market share, J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green
Why We Don’t Really Know What "Statistical Significance" Means: A Major Educational Failure, Raymond Hubbard and J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 2005
The forecasting canon: nine generalizations to improve forecast accuracy, J. Scott Armstrong
Decomposition by Causal Forces: A Procedure for Forecasting Complex Time Series, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy, and J. Thomas Yokum
The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?, Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 2004
Damped Seasonality Factors: Introduction, J. Scott Armstrong
Structured analogies in forecasting, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Value of expertise for forecasting decisions in conflicts, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 2003
Discovery and communication of important marketing findings: evidence and proposals, J. Scott Armstrong
Incentives for Developing and Communicating Principles: A Reply, J. Scott Armstrong
Review of Anthony Pratkanis and Elliot Aronson, Age of Propaganda: The Everyday Use and Abuse of Persuasion, J. Scott Armstrong
Review of Ray Fair, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, J. Scott Armstrong
The Value of Surprising Findings for Research on Marketing, J. Scott Armstrong
The Ombudsman: Reaping Benefits from Management Research: Lessons from the Forecasting Principles Project, J. Scott Armstrong and Ruth Pagell
Papers from 2002
Assessing Game Theory, Role Playing, and Unaided Judgment, J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 2001
Automatic Identification of Time-Series Features for Rule-based Forecasting, Monica Adya, Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, and Miles Kennedy
Combining forecasts, J. Scott Armstrong
Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions?, J. Scott Armstrong
Standards and Practices for Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong
Hypotheses in marketing science: literature review and publication audit, J. Scott Armstrong, Roderick J. Brodie, and Andrew G. Parsons
Identification of Asymmetric Prediction Intervals through Causal Forces, J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy
Papers from 2000
An Application of Rule-based Forecasting to a Situation Lacking Domain Knowledge, Monica Adya, Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, and Miles Kennedy
Papers from 1999
Forecasting for environmental decision making, J. Scott Armstrong
Introduction to Paper and Commentaries on the Delphi Technique, J. Scott Armstrong
Readability and Prestige in Scientific Journals, J. Scott Armstrong
Forecasting for Marketing, J. Scott Armstrong and Roderick J. Brodie
Papers from 1998
Are student ratings of instruction useful?, J. Scott Armstrong
Commentary on "Generalizing About Univariate Forecasting Methods", J. Scott Armstrong
Management Science: What Does It Have to Do with Management or Science?, J. Scott Armstrong
Integration of statistical methods and judgment for time series forecasting: principles from empirical research, J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy
Papers from 1997
Peer Review for Journals: Evidence on Quality Control, Fairness, and Innovation, J. Scott Armstrong
Review of Barry J. Nalebuff and Adam N. Brandenburger, Co-opetition 1. Revolutionary Mindset that Redefines Competition and Co-operation 2. The Game Theory Strategy that's Changing the Game of Business, J. Scott Armstrong and Terry Clark
Papers from 1996
Publication of Research on Controversial Topics: The Early Acceptance Procedure, J. Scott Armstrong
Review of Randall Rothenberg, Where the Suckers Moon: An Advertising Story, J. Scott Armstrong
The Ombudsman: Management Folklore and Management Science: On Portfolio Planning, Escalation Bias and Such, J. Scott Armstrong
Competitor Orientation: Effects of Objectives and Information on Managerial Decisions and Profitability, J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy
Papers from 1995
Quality Control versus Innovation in Research on Marketing, J. Scott Armstrong
The devil's advocate responds to an MBA student’s claim that research harms learning, J. Scott Armstrong
On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods, J. Scott Armstrong and Robert Fildes
Beyond Accuracy: Comparison of Criteria Used to Select Forecasting Methods, J. Thomas Yokum and J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 1994
Review of Scott Plous, The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making, J. Scott Armstrong
The Fertile Field of Meta-analysis: Cumulative Progress in Agricultural Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong
Effects of portfolio planning methods on decision making: experimental results, J. Scott Armstrong and Roderick J. Brodie
Portfolio Planning Methods: Faulty Approach or Faulty Research? A Rejoinder to "Making Better Decisions" by Wensley, J. Scott Armstrong and Roderick J. Brodie
The profitability of winning, J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy
Business school prestige -- research versus teaching, J. Scott Armstrong and Tad Sperry
Effectiveness of Monetary Incentives: Mail Surveys to Members of Multinational Professional Groups, J. Scott Armstrong and J. Thomas Yokum
Principles for Examining Predictive Validity: The Case of Information Systems Spending Forecasts, Fred Collopy, Monica Adya, and J. Scott Armstrong
Replications and Extensions in Marketing: Rarely Published but Quite Contrary, Raymond Hubbard and J. Scott Armstrong
Judgmental Decomposition: When Does It Work?, Donald G. MacGregor and J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 1993
Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time Series Extrapolation, J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy
Escalation bias: does it extend to marketing?, J. Scott Armstrong, Nicole Coviello, and Barbara Safranek
Principles involving marketing policies: an empirical assessment, J. Scott Armstrong and Randall L. Schultz
Papers from 1992
Editorial Policies for the Publication of Controversial Findings, J. Scott Armstrong
Error Measures for Generalizing About Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons, J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy
Expert Opinions About Extrapolation and the Mystery of the Overlooked Discontinuities, Fred Collopy and J. Scott Armstrong
Are Null Results Becoming an Endangered Species in Marketing?, Raymond Hubbard and J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 1991
Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices, J. Scott Armstrong
Strategic Planning Improves Manufacturing Performance, J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 1990
Class of Mail Does Affect Response Rates to Mailed Questionnaires: Evidence from Meta-analysis, J. Scott Armstrong
Does the Need for Agreement Among Reviewers Inhibit the Publication of Controversial Findings?, J. Scott Armstrong and Raymond Hubbard
Review of Noel Capon, John U. Farley and James M. Hulbert, Corporate Strategic Planning, Bernard J. Jaworski and J. Scott Armstrong
Review of Paul Bloomberg, The Predatory Society: Deception in the American Marketplace, Bernard J. Jaworski and J. Scott Armstrong
Review of Peter W. Huber, Liability: The Legal Revolution and Its Consequences, Bernard J. Jaworski and J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 1989
Predicting the Outcome of Marketing Negotiations: Role-Playing versus Unaided Opinions, J. Scott Armstrong and Philip D. Hutcherson
Toward computer-aided forecasting systems: gathering, coding, and validating the knowledge, Fred Collopy and J. Scott Armstrong
Predicting Job Performance: A Comparison of Expert Opinion and Research Findings, Stephen Dakin and J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 1988
Communication of Research on Forecasting: The Journal, J. Scott Armstrong
Research Needs in Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong
Review of Alfie Kohn, No Contest: The Case Against Competition, J. Scott Armstrong
Review of Ravi Batra, The Great Depression of 1990, J. Scott Armstrong
Forecasting Methods for Marketing: Review of Empirical Research, J. Scott Armstrong, Roderick J. Brodie, and Shelby H. McIntyre
Papers from 1987
Forecasting methods for conflict situations, J. Scott Armstrong
Return postage in mail surveys: a meta analysis, J. Scott Armstrong and Edward J. Lusk
Papers from 1986
The Ombudsman: Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984, J. Scott Armstrong
The value of formal planning for strategic decisions: reply, J. Scott Armstrong
Publishing Standards for Research on Forecasting (editorial), J. Scott Armstrong, Estella Bee Dagum, Robert Fildes, and Spyros Makridakis
Papers from 1985
Evidence on the value of strategic planning in marketing: how much planning should a marketing planner plan?, J. Scott Armstrong and David J. Reibstein
Papers from 1984
Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from Twenty-five Years of Research, J. Scott Armstrong
Review of Daniel Kahnemann, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky (eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, J. Scott Armstrong
Papers from 1983
Learner responsibility in management education, or ventures into forbidden research (with comments), J. Scott Armstrong
Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings, J. Scott Armstrong
Review of Allen Tough, Intentional Changes: A Fresh Approach to Helping People Change, J. Scott Armstrong
Strategic Planning and Forecasting Fundamentals, J. Scott Armstrong