How Fast Will Jet Fuel Consumption Rise?

Erin Lo, University of Pennsylvania

Abstract

Jet fuel consumption accounts for a growing amount of greenhouse gas emissions and continues to rise with globalization. Due to its increasing share of greenhouse gas emissions, aviation has been thrust into the spotlight as an industry with the potential to abate carbon emissions. Despite collaborative intentions, many countries cannot come to an agreement for aviation standards and greenhouse gas reduction targets. In projecting jet fuel consumption levels in 2030 and 2050, I hope to create the basis upon which discussions for setting jet fuel consumption policy can begin.

I use data on oil prices, income per capita, and population to create a model to estimate expected jet fuel consumption while accounting for various stages in economic development. I find that income elasticities for jet fuel consumption are highest in the poorest countries, with the most inelastic demand occurring in the 7,000 to 15,000 GDP per capita range. My research predicts jet fuel consumption levels in 2030 and 2050 will be 39.65% and 95.06% greater than 2013 jet fuel consumption levels, respectively.

 

Date Posted: 14 September 2017