Fiscal Policies and Asset Prices

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Finance Papers
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Finance
Finance and Financial Management
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Croce, Mariano M
Kung, Howard
Nguyen, Thien Tung
Schmid, Lukas
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The surge in public debt triggered by the financial crisis has raised uncertainty about future tax pressure and economic activity. We examine the asset pricing effects of fiscal policies in a production-based general equilibrium model in which taxation affects corporate decisions by: (1) distorting profits and investment; (2) reducing the cost of debt through a tax shield; and (3) depressing productivity growth. In settings with recursive preferences, these three tax-based channels generate sizable risk premia, making tax uncertainty a first-order concern. We document further that corporate tax smoothing can substantially alter the effects of public expenditure shocks.

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2012-01-01
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Review of Financial Studies
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