Departmental Papers (ESE)

Document Type

Conference Paper

Date of this Version

May 2005

Comments

Postprint version. Presented at the 2005 International Conference on Intelligence Analysis, May 2005, 2 pages.
Published at: https://analysis.mitre.org/proceedings/index.html

Abstract

Intelligence analysts must clear at least three hurdles to get good product out the door: cognitive biases, social biases and self-imposed organizational impediments. Others (e.g., Gilovich, et al., Heuer, and Kahneman and Tversky), explain the cognitive processes that can help or trip us. A less well mapped set of dangers arises in the social dynamics of communicating tasking, working with other analysts, editing and customer interaction. Finally, the mere fact of a unit's published record creates analytic inertia - an argument at rest tends to stay at rest and one in motion (i.e., ambiguous or uncertain) tends to stay in motion. (A variation of this includes groupthink.)

Date Posted: 06 September 2007